{"id":4091,"date":"2026-07-13T21:08:47","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T21:08:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/homebuyerrelocation.com\/?p=4091"},"modified":"2026-07-13T21:08:47","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T21:08:47","slug":"ai-pushing-the-expected-rise-in-college-closures-analysts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/homebuyerrelocation.com\/?p=4091","title":{"rendered":"AI pushing the expected rise in college closures, analysts say"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Artificial intelligence is driving a surge in expected college closures by automating repetitive office roles that long have been reserved for liberal arts graduates, recent analyses show.<\/p>\n

Read more Lindsey Graham\u2019s sister will replace him in the Senate after his sudden death<\/a><\/p>\n

The Hechinger Report estimates that 442, or 26%, of the nation\u2019s 1,700 private, nonprofit campuses will close or merge over the coming decade. That would affect 670,000 students out of 18.6 million nationwide during the recent spring semester.<\/p>\n

The nonprofit trade publication has noted that AI automation is accelerating this downsizing by reducing the perceived market value of many four-year degrees, hurting enrollment at tuition-dependent campuses.<\/p>\n

\u201cMost people think the panic is largely exaggerated, but colleges will close at a faster rate, and we don\u2019t know what AI is going to look like in a few years,\u201d Dick Startz, an education economist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, said in an interview. \u201cThe higher education market is shrinking, and when that happens, an adjustment has to take place.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other estimates support Hechinger\u2019s projections. Most identify small private schools and regional public campuses as the likeliest to fold.<\/p>\n

The Huron Consulting Group rates 120 of the 442 private nonprofit schools in Hechinger\u2019s list as a \u201chigh risk\u201d of closing.<\/p>\n

The listings are not simply projections.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Huron and Hechinger data are based on actual enrollment trends and financial metrics, not guesswork,\u201d said John Morganelli, a former Cornell University admissions director who directs admissions at Ivy Tutors Network. \u201cAnd if AI keeps compressing the value of certain degrees in the job market, the pressure gets harder to escape.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said automation has added to the pressures of declining public confidence in college degrees, a doubling of tuition over the past 30 years, and decreased employer satisfaction with graduates.<\/p>\n

In January, Brandeis University President Arthur Levine estimated that 20% to 25% of all schools will close in the next few years. Many community colleges and regional public campuses are moving online to meet evolving labor needs.<\/p>\n

He chalked that up to the U.S. transition from an industrial economy to a digital, data-based economy.<\/p>\n

That would be a significant change from the 15% of all schools that closed from the 2013-2014 to the 2022-2023 academic years, according to Education Department data. The federal agency\u2019s records show that 726 out of a historic peak of 4,725 degree-granting institutions collapsed in that period, roughly 80% of them for-profit schools.<\/p>\n

Now, fewer than 3,700 colleges and universities operate nationwide, and the bleeding continues: Hampshire College in Massachusetts is scheduled to go dark after the fall semester.<\/p>\n

\u201cStudents have been spooked by the knowledge that more jobs will be automated, and that hurts enrollment at second-tier schools,\u201d said Peter Wood, president of the conservative National Association of Scholars and a former associate provost at Boston University.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of kids are thinking they might be safer if they apprentice as a welder or painter and go to college later on,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

In May, Forbes published its 2026 Private College Financial Grades, analyzing 965 nonprofit private colleges that enrolled at least 1,000 students last year.<\/p>\n

It awarded 27% a D for financial stability, the lowest grade possible, while noting that top-tier institutions were integrating AI to meet employer demand.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe basic issue is that there are too many colleges and not enough students willing to pay even heavily discounted tuition,\u201d said Gary Stocker, a former private school administrator who founded College Viability to evaluate campuses\u2019 finances.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, some analysts have insisted that estimates in the 25% range in the Hechinger Report and elsewhere are too high for campus closures.<\/p>\n

University of Georgia higher education professor Tim Cain said it is \u201chighly unlikely\u201d that so many colleges will disappear, even if closures do accelerate.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have heard similar projections for decades,\u201d Mr. Cain said in an email. \u201cEach time, those projections have been incorrect.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, Dan Ye, a Maryland-based AI expert who lectures at Johns Hopkins University, said recent projections have underestimated how quickly AI is eliminating the demand for existing degrees.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt is too conservative,\u201d Mr. Ye said in an email, referring to the Hechinger estimate. \u201cMy own projection is that over half of America\u2019s colleges will close in the next 10 years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Automating jobs<\/strong><\/p>\n

Labor analysts have flagged a spike in trade school enrollments and in job listings requiring \u201c1-2 years experience, no degree necessary\u201d as AI reshapes the job market.<\/p>\n

According to Georgetown University\u2019s Center on Education and the Workforce, nearly one-third of annual job openings through 2031 will require some credentials but no degree.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, a shortage of skilled workers in construction and plumbing has driven a spike in enrollment in short-term credentials for jobs AI cannot replace.<\/p>\n

Mr. Ye flagged six Maryland universities in a report last month as financially \u201cdistressed\u201d because of their growing inability to steer students toward middle-class jobs: Salisbury, Frostburg State, Washington Adventist, the University of Baltimore, Notre Dame of Maryland, and the University of Maryland Eastern Shore.<\/p>\n

His report identified another 29 out of 292 schools analyzed nationwide as \u201cwalking zombies,\u201d or campuses so financially distressed that they are on track to collapse in the next five years.<\/p>\n

They include Spring Hill College in Alabama, the University of Bridgeport in Connecticut and the University of the Holy Cross in New Orleans.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are only seeing the beginning of how artificial intelligence is completely rewriting the rules of the job market,\u201d said Mr. Ye, CEO of CollegeNode, which advises universities on AI adoption.<\/p>\n

\u201cI believe AI is going to destroy jobs faster than consensus, and therefore lead to a massive number of parents turning away from college as the cost-return calculation breaks down,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Enrollment crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n

College admissions offices faced a 15% dip in potential college applicants for the upcoming fall semester, driven by a decline in U.S. birth rates dating back to 2008.<\/p>\n

The nonprofit Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education projects that U.S. high school graduation numbers will fall steadily from a record 3.9 million students in 2025 to fewer than 3.4 million in 2041.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe reality is that higher ed is experiencing a time of great transition caused by many years of demographic, economic and policy shifts,\u201d said Geordie Hyland, president and CEO of the American College of Education, a for-profit online school in Indianapolis.<\/p>\n

\u201cInstitutions that don\u2019t adapt to change will face difficulties with maintaining enrollment and staying competitive in the market,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Other factors driving gutting of college financial projections include reduced international enrollment and changes in federal student aid, both driven by the Trump administration\u2019s restrictions on immigration and curbs on loans for low-paying degree paths.<\/p>\n

Omekongo Dibinga, a professor of intercultural communications affiliated with American University\u2019s Antiracist Research and Policy Center, predicted that upcoming college closures will make higher education \u201cless diverse and accessible\u201d for racial minorities and low-income students.<\/p>\n

\u201cI do not believe that universities are right-sizing,\u201d Mr. Dibinga said. \u201cToo many have not seen the value of having groups from underrepresented communities, and that is only going to get worse.\u201d<\/p>\n

Conservatives argue that most humanities courses have focused more on teaching liberal race and gender identity theories, leaving students unprepared to enter the AI job market.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think universities are reacting in an efficient way to AI workforce needs,\u201d said Jonathan Butcher, an education policy fellow at The Heritage Foundation.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs their enrollment goes down, the likelihood of closure goes up, and policymakers need to avoid propping up failing institutions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Read more WATCH: House probes IRS failure to nab tax dodgers in federal workforce<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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