The pro-James Talarico forces are jumping on a new poll that shows him within striking distance of becoming the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years.
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A New York Times/Siena College survey released Tuesday has Mr. Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton deadlocked at 47% each in their high-profile contest for the U.S. Senate.
It’s an open-seat race to replace Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Mr. Paxton after a bruising intraparty fight in which President Trump endorsed Mr. Paxton late in the game.
The November election will decide whether Texas sends a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1988.
Democrats have been burned before in Texas.
In 2018, Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz, only to fall short.
Eight years later, they see another opening — fueled, they argue, by frustration with Mr. Trump, the economy and the personal and political baggage Mr. Paxton brings into the race.
The poll gives Democrats some reason to believe it.
Mr. Talarico, a representative in the Texas House, leads 61% to 29% among Hispanic voters — a notable shift from 2024, when Mr. Trump won 34% of them to Kamala Harris’ 46%, with the rest not voting or declining to say.
A month before that 2024 presidential election, a New York Times/Siena College poll showed Ms. Harris with a narrower 48% to 43% lead over Mr. Trump among Hispanic voters.
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The new survey also showed 65% of likely Hispanic voters disapprove of the way Mr. Trump has handled immigration.
Democrats hope that movement hints at a tough political climate for Republicans heading into the fall midterms, one that could help Mr. Talarico overcome a liberal record that Mr. Paxton and his allies say is out of step with Texas voters and better suited for deep-blue California.
The survey also shows Mr. Talarico ahead 56% to 38% among women, while Mr. Paxton holds a similar advantage among men, 57% to 36%.
Younger voters break heavily for Mr. Talarico — 62% to 32% among those 18 to 29 — while older voters lean toward Mr. Paxton, 53% to 41% among those 65 and up.
Independents favor Mr. Talarico by a wide margin, 58% to 31%.
By race, Mr. Paxton leads 59% to 37% among White voters, while Mr. Talarico leads 80% to 13% among Black voters.
Voters also split along education lines, with Mr. Paxton holding a firm 68% to 27% edge among White voters without a college degree.
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